Italia e Germania: convergenza o divergenza?

Nell’articolo di FT, 

Italy poses a huge threat to the euro and union. One day the country will be led by a party in favour of withdrawal from the currency” 

del 11/12/2016, di Wolfgang Münchau, alcuni dati ed alcune considerazioni meritano un approfondimento:

a) la forbice tra il surplus tedesco (+754 miliardi di euro) ed il deficit italiano (-359 miliardi) nel sistema dei pagamenti in eurozona è ai suoi massimi:
“One metric is the imbalances within Target 2, the eurozone’s payment system. At the end of November these reached higher levels than during the height of the eurozone crisis in 2012. Germany’s surplus is at €754bn, while Italy’s deficit is at €359bn”

b) Italia e Germania dovrebbero convergere perché il sistema stia in piedi:
“Italy and Germany could converge […] 1) Italy would need to undertake economic reforms to clean up the justice system and the public administration, cut taxes and invest in productivity-increasing technologies. Germany would need to run a higher fiscal deficit. 2) […] the northern European states accept large fiscal transfers to the south. 3) […] EU creates a federal political authority with powers to raise taxes in order to transfer income from high to low-income earners. 4) […] the ECB finds a way to bankroll Italian public and private debt indefinitely. Or 5) […] Italy’s government will forever continue to support euro membership.

c) le ultime riforme non sono state all’altezza delle aspettative:
“Matteo Renzi’s economic reforms have been insignificant, apart from a smallish labour reform package”

d) per rimanere nell’euro, servirebbe un dialogo franco tra Italia e Germania:
“If Italy wants to stay in the euro, it needs to send a clear warning to Germany and the other northern European countries that the eurozone is set on a path of self-destruction unless there is a change of parameters.”

e) alcuni scenari sono parecchio drammatici:
“The latter would imply the biggest default in history. The German banking system would be in danger of collapsing, and Europe’s biggest economy would lose all the competitiveness gains so painstakingly accumulated over the past 15 years.”

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